A New Business Climate Index in the Russian Manufacturing
Abstract
The article describes methodological tools that allow expanding information capabilities of the results of business tendency surveys in the Russian manufacturing by using a new composite indicator - the Business Climate Index. The authors explain the feasibility of an alternative measure that summarizes information about entrepreneurial opinions, and give arguments to prove its effectiveness. Identification of the cyclic profile in the new index dynamics and its visualization through the tracer clearly demonstrate all significant waves of producers’ optimism and pessimism over the period since January 2005 to February 2018 as important drivers of the ongoing changes in the business climate of national manufacturing. Graphical interpretation of the VAR simulation results using the impulse response function allows us to detail the relationship between the dynamics of indices of business climate and industrial production in recent years.
Keywords
business surveys of entrepreneurs,
Business climate indicator,
Business confidence indicator,
composite indicators,
short-term cycles,
manufacturing
Supporting agencies: The article was prepared as a part of the Basic Research Program of the National Research University Higher School of Economics using the funding provided through the 5-100 Russian Academic Excellence Project.
About the Authors
Lyudmila A. Kitrar
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Deputy Director, Centre for Business Tendencies Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge
4, Slavyanskaya Sq., Bld. 2, Moscow, 101000
Tamara M. Lipkind
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Leading Expert, Centre for Business Tendencies Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge
4, Slavyanskaya Sq., Bld. 2, Moscow, 101000
Georgii V. Ostapkovich
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Director, Centre for Business Tendencies Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge
4, Slavyanskaya Sq., Bld. 2, Moscow, 101000
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Review
For citations:
Kitrar L.A., Lipkind T.M., Ostapkovich G.V. A New Business Climate Index in the Russian Manufacturing. Voprosy statistiki. 2018;25(8):15-24. (In Russ.)
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