Impact Assessment of Investment Dynamics on the Growth of the Gross Regional Product in the Regions of the North and the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

This article presents results of a study conducted using mathematical and statistical modelling of regional economic specifics of the Russian Northern and Arctic regions in comparison to the national economic trend. The research continues a series of works on modelling the dynamics of GRP production aimed at improving the measurement quality of the interaction between the main production factors and assessing the specificity of their influence on the economic growth in the regions under review. The article considers the impact of investments on the GRP production in the Northern and Arctic regions is argued which is determined by a new approach to the management of these territories through the formation of support zones of development based on the implementation of interconnected different scale investment projects. Mathematical and statistical modelling of GRP production in the Northern and Arctic regions and the Russian Federation as a whole was carried out using the multiplicative production function and the CES production function. For the eight regions of the North [Karelia, Komi Republic, Arkhangelsk region, Nenets autonomous area, Yamal-Nenets autonomous area, Republic of Tuva, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Kamchatka territory, and Magadan region] and for the Russian Federation as a whole, were matched variants of a model, linking GRP with investments. For four constituent entities (Murmansk region, Sakhalin region, Khanty-Mansi autonomous area - Yugra, and Chukotka autonomous area), it was not possible to select such variants of the model. In this regard the authors point out that there is a need for further improvement of mathematical and statistical modelling of the dependence of economic development of the regions on the dynamics of investment activity.

regional economy, economic growth, investments, gross regional product (GRP), economic and statistical modeling, production function, factors of production

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