PREDICTION OF EMPLOYMENT IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
Abstract
Due to the reduction of the ablebodied population, one of the main problems in the modern labour market is to deal with the labour force deficit by spurring a more efficient use of these resources. The article presents results of the study which dealt with the development and testing of the methodology for building predictive estimates of employment for the main economic activities on the basis of econometric models, with account to seasonal factor. This approach allowed to increase the validity of the short-term forecasts, prove the importance of impact of supply and demand characteristics that define productivity and demographic situation on the employment, as well as to assess the ability of the labor market to self-regulate.
The authors have shown that in the near future the transformation of the structure of employment by economic activity will continue. The number of people employed in the wholesale and retail trade will gradually increase, absorbing the flow of labor resources from manufacturing industries and agriculture. The authors substantiate the need for additional adjustments that take into account the economy requirements for labour resources, and are aimed at ensuring effective employment structure.
Supporting agencies: RHF (grant No. 15-02-00567)
About the Authors
V. S. Mkhitarian
National Research University - Higher School of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir S. Mkhitarian
T. V. Sarycheva
Mari State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Tatyana V. Sarycheva
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Review
For citations:
Mkhitarian V.S., Sarycheva T.V. PREDICTION OF EMPLOYMENT IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES. Voprosy statistiki. 2017;(3):18-29. (In Russ.)
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