Data on external migration in Russia by different sources: similarities and contradictions

Abstract

In the article data on the external migration in Russia, by different sources, are analyzed and compared. «Advent» of migrants, according to the official Rosstat data, is to a large extent a process of manifestation in the official statistics of the number of foreigners already in the country. That is why, comparison of official data on population growth by migration with of FMS data on the presence of foreign citizens in the Russian Federation by the length of their stay allows one to approximately estimate the potential of «migration population growth» based on the number of foreigners who are already in the country (at present the figure amounts to 2,8 million persons). This «potential» will be changing depending on the economic environment. The new rules of national migration control, introduced in 2011, have further aggravated the problem of underreporting of retirement, especially with the countries of the EAEC. This is indicated, in particular, by the dynamics of personal money transfers to Kazakhstan, according to the Central Bank of Russia. Therefore, the number of «permanent» population at present, calculated by the application of the new rules is likely to be overestimated. To make evaluation of labor migration between Russia and the EAEC more efficient may be used the date on personal cross-border money transfers. The article also compares the updated data on the presence of foreign citizens by nationality in the Russian Federation as presented by the Federal Migration Service with those of the Border Service of Russia. Consequently, the author shows the way expert comparison of data from various existing sources makes it possible to give the most adequate representation of external migration to Russia.