ANALYSIS OF THE INTENSITY OF PROCESSES IN THE MUTUAL TRADE OF THE CUSTOMS UNION AND COMMON ECONOMIC SPACE

Abstract

The paper presents a new methodological approach to the analysis of the intensity of processes in the sets of objects on the example of mutual trade in goods within the Member States of the Customs Union and Common Economic Space (CU and CES) in 2010-2014. The authors state that the classical socio-economic dynamics analysis, based on growth rate indices, does not illustrate the intensity of traffic change within trade objects, which determine a turnover structure. The rate of natural increase is similar to the growth rate in demographic statistics. Birth and death rates help in estimating the intensity of demographic processes. When analyzing the intensity of processes within the mutual trade (both on the whole and in groups), authors advice using a similar approach. The difference is in the way intensity indicators are counted for those objects with - growth and - decline. There is also an integral index of process intensity, which is calculated by weighing the intensity processes indices for both groups of objects of the set, and an index of process intensity, which considers a direction of processes (increase/decrease). The introduced indices, characterizing the intensity of processes in the sets of objects, are tested on the example of the mutual trade in goods of the Member States of the CU and the CES in 2010-2014. The results of the analysis show advantages of an introduced method and promote its usage along with other methods of statistics.