First Marriage Rates in Real Generations: Methodological and Analytical Potential of Current Registration Data

This article proposes an original methodology for analyzing first marriage entry across real generations (cohorts) using current population statistics, providing insights into marriage patterns. The novelty of the presented algorithm for estimating nuptiality stems from its ability to generate information regularly. In contrast, most domestic statistical studies have used data from all-Russian population censuses, micro-censuses, or sample surveys and have been fragmented (calculations were given only for specific time periods for which data from statistical observations were available).

To enhance the effectiveness of family and demographic policies, the authors propose to establish a regular monitoring system for marital behavior. The findings from which would enable the timely development of measures promoting earlier first marriage and first-born births. Therefore, the methodology for calculating first-marriage rates for real generations has been tested using data for the Russian Federation and its regions, demonstrating the practical value of this study.

The scientific significance of the article lies in the developed methodology, which enables the monitoring of nuptiality trends in real gene- rations at a regional level, allows for its comparison with indicators for hypothetical generations, and helps identify the impact of key factors by considering gender differences.

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