Russia-China Trade and Economic Ties: An Indicator-Based Analysis

This paper presents an assessment of the foreign trade relations between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China using a system of statistical indicators for international trade. The goal of this study is to conduct a quantitative analysis of the structure and dynamics of bilateral trade, based on the calculation of the Trade Intensity Index, the HM Index of trade interdependence, the Export Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, the Import Revealed Comparative Disadvantage Index, and the Trade Complementarity Index. The data source was the ITC TradeMap platform.

The results show consistently high levels of trade activity between the two countries: in 2024, the volume of trade reached a record high of 244.8 billion US dollars, while the Trade Intensity Index of both imports from China to Russia and exports in the opposite direction also updated their own maximum values, amounting to 3.72 and 3.07, respectively. The study revealed a significant asymmetry in the bilateral trade of the two countries: the value of the HM Trade Interdependence Index for Russia (14.53) was almost five times higher than that for China (3.07).

Characterizing the commodity structure of mutual trade between the two countries, comparative advantages and disadvantages, the authors identified «Fertilizers» as the most competitive commodity group of Russian exports in 2024, while China had a high demand for imports of products from the «Ore, Slag and Ash» commodity group.

The comprehensive Trade Complementarity Index has reached a peak in 2024 of 1.38, the highest value since 2017. This indicates a high degree of complementarity between the economies of the countries, particularly in the raw materials sector. In trade with Russia, China mainly specializes in the export of high-tech products and needs to import primary processed goods. Russia, in contrast, has comparative advantages in the sale of goods belonging mainly to raw material groups, and exports high-tech products to a much lesser extent. To further develop foreign trade partnership with China and diversify Russia's export structure, targeted government support is needed, as well as changes in the institutional system.

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