Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Business Activity in the Context of Russia's Socio-Economic Development in 2022–2025
https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2025-32-6-33-42
Abstract
The article examines the issues of development and application of business activity indices for the analysis, forecasting and regulation of the development of the Russian economy during the highly dynamic and turbulent period from 2022 to May 2025.
Using statistical data and applying econometric methods, the study analyzes the results of the Composite Business Activity Index developed by the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IE RAS Index), which reflects the dynamics of key sectors and domains of the national economy. The paper presents results of its comparison with the Index of output of goods and services by basic types of economic activity calculated by Rosstat (Rosstat Index).
The authors argue that Russia's ongoing structural transformation is a fundamental factor for strategic development and strengthening of national sovereignty, with business activity playing a significant role in this process. Potential directions for enhancing the effectiveness of the Composite Business Activity Index in forecasting and managing the country's socio-economic development are outlined.
It is concluded that, despite converging trends and a significant correlation between the two indices, the IE RAS Index provides a more accurate assessment of GDP growth trends. This serves as further evidence of its advantages and provides a rationale for its wider application in public administration, forecasting, and strategic planning within the Russian Federation.
About the Authors
A. A. Frenkel
Institute of Economy of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexander A. Frenkel – Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Chief Researcher
32, Nakhimovskiy Ave., Moscow, 117218
B. I. Tikhomirov
Institute of Economy of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Boris I. Tikhomirov – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Leading Researcher
32, Nakhimovskiy Ave., Moscow, 117218
A. A. Surkov
Institute of Economy of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Anton A. Surkov – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Researcher
32, Nakhimovskiy Ave., Moscow, 117218
References
1. Kitrar L.A., Lipkind T.M., Usov N.A. Forecasting GDP Growth Considering Crisis Shocks Based on Business Survey Results. Voprosy Statistiki. 2021;28(4):80–95. (In Russ.) Available from: https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2021-28-4-80-95.
2. Lola I.S., Manukov A.B., Bakeev M.B. Stress Testing in Statistical Modeling of Business Activity in Conditions of Market Shocks. Voprosy Statistiki. 2020;27(4):5–23. (In Russ.) Available from: https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2020-27-4-5-23.
3. Safiullin M.R., El’shin L.A., Shakirova A.I. Evaluation of Business and Economic Activity as a Short-Term Forecasting Tool. Voprosy Ekonomiki i Prava. 2011;(9):81–89. (In Russ.)
4. Grishina I.V., Polynev A.O. Regional Features of the Response to the Global Crisis. Russian Foreign Economic Journal. 2020;(10):62–76. (In Russ.) Available from: https://doi.org/10.24411/2072-8042-2020-10102.
5. Glukhov V.V., Kolomysova M.V. Methodology for Assessing the Business Activity Index of an Enterprise Based on the Analysis of the Business Environment. π-Economy. 2025;18(2):121–133. (In Russ.) Available from: https://doi.org/10.18721/JE.18207.
6. Chien Y., Morris P. PMI and GDP: Do they correlate for the United States? For China? Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2016;(6):1–2.
7. Sobko R., Klonowska-Matynia M. The Relationship Between the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Economic Growth: The Case for Poland. European Research Studies Journal. 2021;24(S1):198–219.
8. Ha J., So I. Global Confidence, Uncertainty, and Business Cycles. International Journal of Central Banking. 2023;19(1):451–493.
9. Van Aarle B., Kappler M. Economic Sentiment Shocks and Fluctuations in Economic Activity in the Euro Area and the USA. Intereconomics. 2012;47(1):44–51. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-012-0405-z.
10. Bayraktar N. Foreign Direct Investment and Investment Climate. Procedia Economics and Finance. 2013;5:83–92. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(13)00013-0.
11. Ravazzolo F., Vespignani J. World Steel Production: A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity. Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue Сanadienne d'Économique. 2020;53(2):743–766. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12442.
12. Frenkel A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Ups and Downs of Business Activity in the Waves of Crises, the Coronavirus Pandemic and Unprecedented Western Sanctions. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2023;27(1):6–17. (In Russ.) Available from: https://doi.org/10.26794/25875671-2023-27-1-6-17.
13. Frenkel A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Business Activity in the Context of Western Sanctions and Turbulence in Russia’s Strategic Development. The World of New Economy. 2024;18(4):69–80. (In Russ.) Available from: https://doi.org/10.26794/2220-6469-2024-18-4-69-80.
14. Loseva O.V., Fedotova M.A., Khotinskaya G.I. Business Activity as a Leading Indicator of Economic Development: Foreign and Russian Experience. Finance: Theory and Practice. 2015;(3):26–37. (In Russ.) Available from: https://doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2015-0-3-26-37.
15. Putyatina L.M., Barsova T.N., Tarasova N.V. Business Activity of Enterprises as a Factor of Economic Growth of the Russian Industry. Bulletin of Moscow Region State University. Series: Economics. 2016;(2):122–126. (In Russ.) Available from: https://doi.org/10.18384/2310-6646-20162-122-126.
16. Davidova L.V., Afanaseva M.V. The Comparative Analysis of Business Activity in World Economic System. Belgorod State University. Scientific Bulletin. Series: Economics. Information Technologies. 2011;17/1(1(96):88–94. (In Russ.)
17. Shcherbinina L.Yu., Peresko Yu.A. Review of Methods for Assessing Business Activity Indices. Economics and Management Issues. 2016;3.1(5.1):52–55. (In Russ.)
18. Fatkhullina A.A. Business Activity as a Multi-Level Category. Actual Problems of Economics and Law. 2014;(1):166–172. (In Russ.)
19. Hansson J., Jansson P., Löf M. Business Survey Data: Do they Help in Forecasting GDP Growth? International Journal of Forecasting. 2005;21(2):377–389. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2004.11.003.
20. Burcu E. et al. Financial Conditions and Purchasing Managers’ Indices: Exploring the Links. BIS Quarterly Review. 22 September 2019. P. 65–79.
21. Frenkel A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Socio-Economic Development of Russia in 2024–2026: Assessing Resilience and Growth Prospects. Voprosy Statistiki. 2025;32(3):16–34. (In Russ.) Available from: https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2025-32-3-16-34.
22. Frenkel A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Results of Russia’s Strategic Development in January – April 2025: Economic Growth in the Context of Western Sanctions. Ekonomicheskie Strategii. 2025;4:108–113. (In Russ.)
23. Zemtsov S.P., Barinova V.A., Mikhailov A.A. Sanctions, Exit of Foreign Companies and Business Activity in the Russian Regions. Economic Policy. 2023;18(2):44–79. (In Russ.) Available from: https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2023-2-44-79.
24. Lebedeva P.A. Business Activity Fluctuations in the Terms of Digitalization. The Eurasian Scientific Journal. 22;14(5):Article 07ECVN522. (In Russ.) Available from: https://esj.today/PDF/07ECVN522.pdf.
Review
For citations:
Frenkel A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Business Activity in the Context of Russia's Socio-Economic Development in 2022–2025. Voprosy statistiki. 2025;32(6):33-42. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2025-32-6-33-42
Views:
53
Email this article 