Analysis of the Dynamics of Internal Migration in Saint Petersburg Using a Gravity Model

Abstract

The article studies the features of internal migration in St. Petersburg, one of the largest metropolises in Russia, from 2015 to 2023. The reason for selecting this time interval is that since 2015, Rosstat has provided access to detailed data on migration, which significantly increases the completeness and accuracy of the analysis of migration processes and includes the most recent published data for 2023.
The study presents an extended gravity model developed by the author, which considers socio-economic factors influencing migration processes, including population size, average monthly wages, employment levels, and geographic remoteness of regions. Unlike traditional gravity models that primarily rely on demographic variables, the work considers economic factors that significantly affect migration in a country with pronounced regional differences.
Graphical methods were used to visualize regional migration trends, including the structure and characteristics of arrivals by gender, age, and level of education, while also identifying donor regions for St. Petersburg.
Using the developed model, a forecast of internal Russian migration flows to St. Petersburg was made for the period up to 2026. The forecast serves as a starting point for further research, considering the limited time data set and the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reveals regional characteristics of internal migration in the largest metropolis in Russia and offers insights into the long-term impact of migration processes, emphasizing the significance of both economic factors and regional development strategies in shaping migration flows.