Quantity assessment of the impact foreign economic activity has on the dynamics of industrial production

This article discusses the dynamics of industrial production in Russia on the basis of the regression model. On the basis of economic analysis a set of factors influencing the growth rate of industrial production, including those reflecting Russia's foreign trade, was identified. The following indicators were used as independent variables: real disposable income of the population, exports value, fixed capital investments, accounts payable of enterprises, as well as imports of machinery, equipment and vehicles. All indicators were presented in the form of monthly time series of growth rates for 2007-2013. The selected variables for multicollinearity were analyzed and, since a strong linear relationship of independent variables was identified, in order to evaluate the parameters of the model was chosen the method of ridge regression, which allows estimating the regression parameters under multicollinearity conditions. Next, were considered average private elasticity along with beta and delta coefficients of the regression equation. The analysis showed that at the present stage of development of the Russian economy the greatest contributor of economic growth is the foreign demand for raw materials. Export dependence on growth of industrial production is a negative factor, because it once again demonstrates that the Russian economy is oriented towards raw materials. In the second place, influence wise, is the investment demand from enterprises that could be a factor of industrial growth, whilst solving the issue of import substitution in the engineering sector of economy.

промышленный рост, эконометрическая модель, регрессионный анализ, гребневая регрессия, факторы промышленного роста, industrial growth, econometric model, regression analysis, ridge regression, the factors for industrial growth

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