Impact Assessment of Changes in the Age and Educational Structure of the Population in the Russian Labor Market

The objective of this study is to assess the contribution of changes in the age and educational structure of the population and labor force to the dynamics of the levels of employment and unemployment in Russia in the last two decades. The empirical basis of the study is the microdata of the Labor Force Survey conducted by Rosstat monthly. Standardization and decomposition of statistical indicators are used as methods of analysis.

The author cites evidence that during the period under review the composition of the population and labor force has undergone significant structural changes. The proportion of people with higher education, which are characterized by higher employment rates and lower unemployment rates has steadily increased. The share of young people and the poorly educated population, which are characterized by low participation in employment and high risks of unemployment, was declining.

The dynamics of employment and unemployment rates in 2000-2018 were largely determined by the influence of structural factors favorable (in terms of the impact on the labor market) shifts in the age and educational structure of the Russian population and labor force.

Structural factors had a greater impact on the positive dynamics of employment. Over the period in question, the growth in the level of education contributed to more than half of the increase in the employment rate. Changes in the age structure put downward pressure on the level of employment, but the contribution of this factor was insignificant. Structural factors contributed about a third of the overall decline in the unemployment rate. The contribution of changes in age and educational structure was almost the same in magnitude.

The estimates provide a more accurate idea of the real situation on the Russian labor market and the reasons underlying the dynamics of its indicators. Quantitative characteristics, reflecting changes in the age and educational structure of the population, allow, according to the author, to improve the quality of the developed functional labor market forecasts.

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