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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">voprstat</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вопросы статистики</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Voprosy Statistiki</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2313-6383</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2658-5499</issn><publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">voprstat-694</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ВОПРОСЫ МЕТОДОЛОГИИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ISSUES OF METHODOLOGY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Пошаговое объединение индивидуальных прогнозов на основе метода Грейнджера-Раманатхана</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Step-by-step Combining of Individual Forecasts Based on the Granger-Ramanathan Method</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Френкель</surname><given-names>Александр Адольфович</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Frenkel</surname><given-names>Alexander A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д-р экон. наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Prof., Chief Researcher</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ie_901@inecon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Волкова</surname><given-names>Наталия Николаевна</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Volkova</surname><given-names>N. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>канд. экон. наук, ведущий научный сотрудник</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Leading Researcher</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">lituk.n@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сурков</surname><given-names>Антон Александрович</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Surkov</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>младший научный сотрудник</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Junior Researcher</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ie_901@inecon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Романюк</surname><given-names>Эвелина Игоревна</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Romanyuk</surname><given-names>E. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>научный сотрудник</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Researcher</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">Romvel57@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт экономики РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of Economics, RAS</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт экономики РАН, г. Москва</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of Economics, RAS</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2018</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>27</day><month>06</month><year>2018</year></pub-date><volume>25</volume><issue>6</issue><fpage>16</fpage><lpage>24</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Френкель А.А., Волкова Н.Н., Сурков А.А., Романюк Э.И., 2018</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2018</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Френкель А.А., Волкова Н.Н., Сурков А.А., Романюк Э.И.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Frenkel A.A., Volkova N.N., Surkov A.A., Romanyuk E.I.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/694">https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/694</self-uri><abstract><p>Статья посвящена проблеме повышения точности прогнозирования временных рядов путем объединения индивидуальных прогнозов. В ней предлагается модификация одного из наиболее популярных методов объединения прогнозов, предложенного Грейнджером и Раманатханом и основанного на минимизации ошибки прогнозирования. Эти методы часто используются в практических расчетах. Однако они могут давать отрицательные коэффициенты при объединении прогнозов, и, соответственно, некоторые весовые коэффициенты могут превышать единицу. В работе предложена модификация разработанной ранее авторами методики на основе применения итеративной процедуры с целью исключения отрицательных весовых коэффициентов при объединении прогнозов. Осуществлен сравнительный анализ предлагаемой методики с традиционным методом Грейнджера-Раманатхана с ограничениями на сумму весов, равную единице, и индивидуальными прогнозами, на основе которых строится объединение. Эта процедура проводилась на базе временных рядов по производству ряда видов промышленной продукции в натуральном выражении. Результаты исследования позволяют сделать вывод о том, что хотя предлагаемая модификация метода ГрейнджераРаманатхана с использованием последовательного объединения индивидуальных прогнозов несущественно снижает его точность, но при этом удается исключить отрицательные весовые коэффициенты. В итоге расширяются возможности прогнозирования при решении практических задач.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The article is devoted to the problem of increasing the accuracy of forecasting by combining individual forecasts. It presents a modification of one of the most popular forecast combination methods proposed by Granger and Ramanathan, which is based on minimizing the prediction error. These methods are often used in practical calculations. However, they can give negative coefficients and, thus, some weights may exceed one. The paper considers a modification of the methodology based on the use of an iterative procedure in order to exclude the negative weights from combining the forecasts. The authors carried out comparative analysis of both the proposed method and the traditional Granger-Ramanathan combination with restrictions on weights summing to one, and individual forecasts on the basis of which the combining is performed. The comparison was made on the basis of time series on the production of a number of types of products in physical terms.  The results of the study made it possible to conclude that the proposed modification of the Granger-Ramanathan method using sequential prediction does slightly reduce its accuracy, but it saves the approach in question from negative weighting coefficients. As a result it broadens the applicability of the real practice-oriented forecasting.</p><p> </p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>объединение прогнозов</kwd><kwd>временные ряды</kwd><kwd>методы прогнозирования временных рядов</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>combining of forecasts</kwd><kwd>time series</kwd><kwd>time series forecasting methods</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Работа выполнена при финансовой поддержке РФФИ, № проекта 16-06-00183</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">This study was supported by the RFBR, Project No. 16-06-00183</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Френкель А.А. и др. Объединение прогнозов как фактор повышения качества прогнозирования // Экономика и предпринимательство. 2016. Т. 10. № 11. Ч. 2. 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