References

voprstat

Вопросы статистики

Voprosy Statistiki

2313-63832658-5499

The Federal State Budgetary Institution "Scientific Research Institute for Socio-Economic Statistics of the Federal State Statistics Service" (Statistics Research Institute of Rosstat)

10.34023/2313-6383-2015-0-5-48-58

voprstat-222

Research Article

СТАТИСТИКА В СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯХ

STATISTICS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDIES

Экономическая активность людей пожилого возраста в России: вслед за мировым трендом?

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF THE ELDERLY PEOPLE IN RUSSIA: FOLLOWING THE GLOBAL TREND?

Сонина

Юлия Владимировна

Sonina

Yuliya

juliasonina@gmail.com

Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsRussian Federation

2015

12122016

054858

2016

Сонина Ю.В.

Sonina Y.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/222

В статье на основе данных Росстата, МОТ, МВФ и ряда национальных статистических служб рассматривается динамика экономической активности людей пожилого возраста в России в контексте мировых тенденций. Проблема старения населения, характерная практически для всех стран, включая Россию, станет в ближайшие десятилетия главным вызовом для их экономического роста. Проведенное исследование свидетельствует о старении рабочей силы в России в результате как общего старения населения, так и увеличения уровня экономической активности пожилых людей. Как отмечает автор, аналогичная тенденция наблюдается во многих развитых странах мира. В развивающихся государствах, напротив, экономическая активность людей пожилого возраста в последние десятилетия снижается. Старение рабочей силы России, наряду со снижением ее численности при сохранении общей численности населения, ставит вопрос об устойчивости пенсионной системы страны. Автор рассматривает людей пенсионного возраста в качестве резерва для увеличения численности занятых и смягчения негативных последствий старения населения. На основе исследования динамики экономической активности людей пожилого возраста в России в 1995-2012 гг. оценивается их вклад в общее старение рабочей силы страны на данном промежутке времени. Сравнительный анализ влияния уровня экономического развития на динамику экономической активности людей пожилого возраста в развитых и развивающихся странах позволил автору статьи спрогнозировать направление и масштаб наиболее вероятных изменений экономической активности людей пожилого возраста в России до 2030 г.

The article addresses the dynamics of the economic activity of elderly people in Russia in the context of global trends on the basis of data from the Federal State Statistics Service, the International Labour Organization, the International Monetary Fund and several national statistical offices. The problem of ageing population, typical for almost all countries, including Russia, in the coming decades will be a major challenge to their economic growth. The research demonstrates that the aging of the workforce in Russia is as a result of the aging of the population and the increase in the level of economic activity of the elderly people. As the author notes, a similar trend is observed in many developed countries. However in the developing countries the economic activity of the elderly has been decreasing in the last decades. Aging of the workforce in the Russian Federation, along with its reduction, while maintaining the total population, raises the question of sustainability of the pension system. The author considers the people of retirement age as a provision to increase employment and to mitigate the negative effects of the population aging. Based on the study of the dynamics of economic activity of the elderly people in Russia in 1995 -2012, their contribution to the overall aging of the labor force in the period of time under review is estimated. A comparative analysis of the influence the level of economic development has on the dynamics of the economic activity of elderly people in the developed and developing countries has allowed the author to predict the direction and extent of the most likely changes in the economic activity of elderly people in Russia up to 2030.

статистика занятостидемографическая статистикаэконометрический анализстарение населенияпенсионное поведениеэкономическая активность людей пожилого возрастаemployment statisticsdemographic statisticseconometric analysispopulation agingpension behavioreconomic activity of the elderly people

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.