voprstatВопросы статистикиVoprosy Statistiki2313-63832658-549910.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-2-39-51voprstat-1714Research ArticleМАТЕМАТИКО-СТАТИСТИЧЕСКИЕ МЕТОДЫ В АНАЛИЗЕ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИИMATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTINGСтатистический анализ неравенства и бедности с учетом скрытых доходов российских домашних хозяйствStatistical Analysis of Ineqality and Poverty with Under-Reporting Incomes of Russian Householdshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8692-7883АрженовскийС. В.ArzhenovskiyS. V.

Арженовский Сергей Валентинович – д-р экон. наук, профессор, главный экономист

344006, г. Ростов-на-Дону, просп. Соколова, д. 22а

Sergey V. Arzhenovskiy – Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Chief Economist

22-a, Sokolov Ave., Rostov-on-Don, 344006

sarzhenov@gmail.comОтделение по Ростовской области Южного главного управления Центрального банка Российской ФедерацииРоссияRostov Regional Division of the Southern Main Branch of the Central Bank of the Russian FederationRussian Federation2024250420243123951Copyright © Арженовский С.В., 20242024Арженовский С.В.Arzhenovskiy S.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1714

В статье отражены основные результаты авторского исследования неравенства и бедности с учетом скрытых доходов домохозяйств в Российской Федерации. Одной из важных целей указанного исследования являлось оценивание скрытых доходов домохозяйств и их влияния на сглаживание доходного неравенства и бедности на основе репрезентативных данных Всероссийского обследования домохозяйств по потребительским финансам (2013, 2015, 2018, 2020 и 2022 гг.). Актуальным является анализ изменения неравенства по отдельным группам населения, а также вклада в неравенство отдельных источников дохода, в том числе скрытых от статистического наблюдения. Новизной исследования являются полученные оценки скрытых доходов домохозяйств, а также результаты анализа их влияния на сглаживание доходного неравенства и бедности на основе указанных данных.Метод решения поставленных задач – эконометрическое моделирование согласно подходу Писсаридеса – Вебера, а также декомпозиция коэффициента эластичности Джини по источникам доходов на основе алгоритма Лермана – Ицхаки. Результаты расчетов отличаются от выявленных ранее по данным Российского мониторинга экономического положения и здоровья населения НИУ ВШЭ. Полученная доля скрытых доходов в располагаемых ресурсах домохозяйств составила в среднем за 2013–2022 гг. около 20% и снижалась на 2,3% в среднем за год. Декомпозиция коэффициента Джини по доходам позволила сделать вывод о том, что основной вклад в неравенство вносило небедное население. Расчет доходных эластичностей Джини по источникам доходов для бедных и небедных домохозяйств (с учетом вмененной компоненты скрытых доходов) обнаружил их разнонаправленное влияние на неравенство. Оплата труда и социальные трансферты увеличивают неравенство среди бедных и не ведут к росту неравенства среди небедных домохозяйств. Расчетная доля скрытых доходов выше для группы бедных домохозяйств. В то же время эта компонента увеличивала неравенство в посткризисном 2015 г. и в пандемийном 2020 г. для группы небедных домохозяйств. Полученные результаты содержат важную информацию для лиц, принимающих решения в сфере социальной политики, о влиянии скрытых доходов на процесс снижения бедности и выравнивание уровня жизни российского населения

The subject of the article is the study of inequality and poverty, taking into account under-reporting household income. The purpose of the research was to estimate the under-reporting incomes of households and their impact on the smoothing income inequality and poverty based on representative data of the All-Russian Survey of Consumer Finance (2013, 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022). It is relevant to analyze changes in inequality for individual population groups, as well as the contribution to inequality of individual sources of income, including those hidden from statistical observation. The novelty of the study is the obtained estimates of under-reporting household income, as well as the results of an analysis of their impact on smoothing income inequality and poverty based on the specified dataThe methodology included the use of econometric modeling according to the Pissarides – Weber approach, as well as decomposition of the Gini elasticity by income sources based on the Lerman – Yitzhaki algorithm. The results of estimations differ from those previously obtained according to the data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey – Higher School of Economics. The resulting share of under- reporting income in the disposable resources of households averaged about 20% for 2013 to 2022 and decreased by 2,3% on average per year. Decomposition of the Gini index by income sources led to the conclusion that the main contribution to inequality was made by the non-poor population. Calculation of Gini income elasticities by income sources for poor and non-poor households (taking into account the imputed component of under-reporting income) revealed their differently directed impact on inequality. Wages and social transfers increase inequality among the poor and do not increase inequality among non-poor households. Estimating under-reporting income was higher for the group of poor households. At the same time, this component increased inequality in the post-crisis year 2015 and in the pandemic year 2020 for the group of non-poor households. The obtained results will provide important information to social policy makers, taking into account the influence of under-reporting income` on the poverty reduction and equalization of the standard of living of the Russian population

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.