voprstatВопросы статистикиVoprosy Statistiki2313-63832658-5499The Federal State Budgetary Institution "Scientific Research Institute for Socio-Economic Statistics of the Federal State Statistics Service" (Statistics Research Institute of Rosstat)10.34023/2313-6383-2024-31-1-5-21voprstat-1683Research ArticleВОПРОСЫ МЕТОДОЛОГИИISSUES OF METHODOLOGYНовые измерители неопределенности деловой среды в российской экономикеNew Indicators of Business Uncertainty in the Russian Economyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0974-8723ЛолаИ. С.LolaI. S.

Лола Инна Сергеевна – канд. экон. наук, заместитель директора, Центр конъюнктурных исследований Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний

101000, г. Москва, Славянская пл., д. 4, стр. 2

Inna S. Lola – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Deputy Director, Centre for Business Tendency Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge

4, Slavyanskaya Sq., Bldg. 2, Moscow, 101000

ilola@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3144-2544БакеевМ. Б.BakeevМ. В.

Бакеев Мурат Булатович – аспирант, факультет экономических наук

109028, г. Москва, Покровский бульвар, д. 11

Murat B. Bakeev – Postgraduate Student, Faculty of Economic Sciences

11, Pokrovsky Blvd., Moscow, 109028

mbakeev@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5899-8024МануковА. Б.ManukovА. В.

Мануков Антон Борисович – ведущий аналитик, Центр конъюнктурных исследований Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний

101000, г. Москва, Славянская пл., д. 4, стр. 2

Anton B. Manukov – Leading Analyst, Centre for Business Tendency Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge

 4, Slavyanskaya Sq., Bldg. 2, Moscow, 101000

amanukov@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияNational Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE University)Russian Federation202422022024311521Copyright © Лола И.С., Бакеев М.Б., Мануков А.Б., 20242024Лола И.С., Бакеев М.Б., Мануков А.Б.Lola I.S., Bakeev М.В., Manukov А.В.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1683

В статье изложены основные результаты исследования по разработке методики и апробации инструментария, для регулярного мониторинга деловой среды в России посредством измерения уровня ее неопределенности и выявления степени ее влияния на динамику экономической активности на основе анализа конъюнктурных обследований бизнеса. Данная методика впервые протестирована для оценки неопределенности деловой среды и ее воздействия на цифровое и технологическое развитие российских промышленных предприятий.

Источником данных для исследования послужили регулярные выборочные опросы руководителей организаций за период с 2009 по 2022 г. Задействованы две независимые базы данных: квартальные обследования деловой активности организаций различных видов экономической деятельности для построения национального и отраслевых индикаторов неопределенности деловой среды и ежегодные пилотные обследования цифровой активности промышленных предприятий для построения индикатора неопределенности в области цифрового и технологического развития промышленности.

Все рассчитанные композитные индикаторы смогли выявить значимые для России особенности экономической конъюнктуры, связанные с шоковыми событиями. Так, при анализе флуктуации исследуемых индикаторов четко обнаруживаются «всплески» в ответ на шоки конъюнктуры в 2020 и 2022 гг. В целом период с 2020 г. по настоящее время характеризуется как период продолжительного кризиса, обусловленного ростом неопределенности в российской экономической среде, беспрецедентный масштаб которого был оценен с помощью построенных измерителей.

По мнению авторов, предложенные композитные индикаторы расширяют аналитические возможности использования данных конъюнктурных мониторингов, создавая предпосылки для регулярного отслеживания изменений уровня неопределенности деловой среды, и повышают оперативную ценность предоставляемой компаниями информации. Это обеспечивает разработку более точных сценарных социально-экономических прогнозов.

The purpose of the article is to present the main results of the study on the development of methods and testing of tools necessary for continuous monitoring of the business environment in Russia by measuring the level of its uncertainty and identifying the degree of its influence on the dynamics of economic activity based on the analysis of business tendency surveys. This methodology was tested for the first time to assess the level of uncertainty in the business environment and its impact on the digital and technological development of domestic industrial enterprises.

The source of data for the study is regular sample surveys of business leaders for the period from 2009 to 2022. Two independent databases are used: quarterly surveys of business activity of organizations of various types of economic activity to build national and industry indicators of uncertainty in the business environment and annual pilot surveys of digital activity of industrial enterprises to construct an indicator of uncertainty in the field of digital and technological development of industry.

All calculated composite indicators were able to identify significant features of the economic situation for the Russian economy associated with shock events. When analyzing the fluctuations of the indicators under study, «spikes» are clearly detected in response to the shocks of the business tendencies in 2020 and 2022. In general, the period from 2020 to the present is characterized as a period of prolonged crisis associated with growing uncertainty in the Russian economic environment, the unprecedented scale of which was demonstrated by the constructed indicators.

According to the authors, the proposed composite indicators expand the analytical capabilities of business tendency surveys data, creating the prerequisites for regular monitoring of changes in the level of uncertainty in the business environment and increasing the operational value of the information provided by companies. This allows to develop more accurate socio-economic scenario forecasts.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.