voprstatВопросы статистикиVoprosy Statistiki2313-63832658-5499The Federal State Budgetary Institution "Scientific Research Institute for Socio-Economic Statistics of the Federal State Statistics Service" (Statistics Research Institute of Rosstat)10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-5-19voprstat-1576Research ArticleВОПРОСЫ МЕТОДОЛОГИИISSUES OF METHODOLOGYО совершенствовании методологии оценки и анализа экспортной конъюнктуры российских предприятий обрабатывающей промышленностиDevelopment of a Methodology for Assessment and Analysis of the Export Conjuncture of Russian Manufacturing Enterpriseshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0974-8723ЛолаИ. С.LolaI. S.

Лола Инна Сергеевна – канд. экон. наук, заместитель директора, Центр конъюнктурных исследований Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний

101000, г. Москва, Славянская пл., д. 4, стр. 2

Inna S. Lola – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Deputy Director, Centre for Business Tendency Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge

4, Slavyanskaya Sq., Bld. 2, Moscow, 10100

ilola@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияNational Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE University)Russian Federation202321062023303519Copyright © Лола И.С., 20232023Лола И.С.Lola I.S.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1576

Обосновываются актуальные методологические подходы к анализу экспортной конъюнктуры (на примере российских предприятий обрабатывающей промышленности), включающие новую методику ее интегральной оценки. Данная оценка производится посредством моделирования как мирового спроса на отечественную продукцию, так и ее ценовой конкурентоспособности на международном рынке.

Отмечается важность анализа текущей фазы экономического развития России, в рамках которой происходит структурная трансформация промышленной экспортной политики и складывается новый контур внешнеэкономической деятельности, обусловливающий необходимость совершенствования методов оценки экспортного климата. Подчеркивается актуальность использования в экономико-статистическом анализе экспортных тенденций не только качественных и количественных индикаторов, но и их гибридных модификаций. Автор предлагает новый гибридный измеритель – индекс экспортного климата (ИЭК), агрегирующий показатели спроса на отечественные товары промышленного производства и их ценовой конкурентоспособности на международном рынке. Методология его расчета опирается на адаптированные к особенностям российской экономики теоретические разработки и лучший мировой опыт в области измерения и анализа экспортных тенденций.

Для эмпирических расчетов использовались квантифицированные результаты обследований бизнеса и потребителей в странах – основных торговых партнерах России, а также данные Банка России о реальном эффективном курсе рубля к иностранным валютам.

Результаты экспериментальных расчетов выявили значимую опережающую корреляцию между динамикой ИЭК и динамикой референта – показателя экспорта товаров в стоимостном выражении, подтвердив возможность использования нового индекса не только для интегральной оценки экспортного климата в стране, но и в качестве краткосрочного предиктора, эффективно дополняющего существующие статистические измерители.

The article explains the current methodological approaches to the analysis of the export conjuncture (on the example of Russian ma nufacturing enterprises), including a new methodology for its integral assessment. This assessment is made by modeling the global demand for domestic products and their price competitiveness in the international market.

The importance of the analysis of the current phase of Russia's economic development is emphasized, when a structural transformation of industrial and export policy is taking place and a new contour of foreign economic activity is being formed. This necessitates the improvement of methods for export climate assessment. The author underlines the relevance of using not only qualitative and quantitative indicators, but also their hybrid modifications in the economic and statistical analysis of export trends. The article presents a new hybrid measure – the Export Climate Index (ECI), which aggregates the indicators of demand for domestic manufactured goods and their price competitiveness in the international market. The methodology for its calculation is based on theoretical developments, adapted to the specifics of the Russian economy, and the best world practices for measuring and analyzing export trends.

The quantified results of business and consumer surveys in the countries that are Russia's main trading partners, as well as the real effective exchange rate of the ruble according to the Bank of Russia, are used for empirical calculations.

The calculations results revealed a significant leading correlation between the ECI dynamics and the dynamics of the referent – the indicator of export of goods in value terms, confirming the possibility of using the new index not only for an integral assessment of the export climate in Russia, but also as a short-term predictor that effectively supplements statistical measures.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.