voprstatВопросы статистикиVoprosy Statistiki2313-63832658-549910.34023/2313-6383-2021-28-6-69-78voprstat-1367Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ СТАТИСТИКАINTERNATIONAL STATISTICSИсследование взаимосвязей внешней торговли и качества окружающей среды: существующие подходы и апробация гравитационного моделированияInvestigation of the Relations Between Foreign Trade and Characteristics of Environmental Quality: Existing Approaches and Approbation of Gravity Modelinghttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0472-3607ШведА. В.ShvedA. V.

Швед Анна Вячеславовна – канд. экон. наук, докторант кафедры статистики

220070, Республика Беларусь, г. Минск, Партизанский просп., 26

Shved – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Doctoral Student, Department of Statistics

26, Partizanski Av., Minsk, 220070

annalarchenko@gmail.comБелорусский государственный экономический университетБеларусьBelarus State Economic UniversityBelarus2021101220212866978Copyright © Швед А.В., 20212021Швед А.В.Shved A.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1367

Цель настоящего исследования заключается в обобщении автором подходов и методов к оценке наличия, выявления форм и видов взаимосвязей между характеристиками качества окружающей среды и международной торговли, а также апробации гравитационной теории торговли в качестве такого метода (на примере Республики Беларусь).Автором изучены современные работы экономической направленности, посвященные исследованию влияния либерализации торговли на загрязнение окружающей среды, рассмотрению гипотезы «убежища для загрязнения», экологической кривой Кузнеца, гипотезы Портера и др., а также исследования, направленные на подтверждение либо опровержение указанных гипотез, систематизированы современные подходы к оценке взаимосвязей между показателями внешней торговли и экологическими индикаторами.На основе панельных данных за период с 1995 по 2019 г. автором построены гравитационные модели внешней торговли (отдельно для экспорта и для импорта) Республики Беларусь со странами-партнерами по ЕАЭС и странами-соседями (Литва, Латвия, Польша, Украина) с учетом воздействия на окружающую среду (в качестве прокси-переменной загрязнения использован объем эмиссии углекислого газа). Результаты моделирования подтвердили теоретические положения гравитационной теории. Кроме того, выявлено существенное влияние увеличения эмиссии углекислого газа стран–торговых партнеров Республики Беларусь на ее импорт.

The purpose of this study is for the author to summarize approaches and methods for assessing availability, identifying forms and types of relations between characteristics of environmental quality and international trade, and also to test the gravity theory of trade as such a method (on the example of the Republic of Belarus).The author has investigated modern economic works devoted to the study of the influence of trade liberalization on environmental pollution, the pollution haven hypothesis, the environmental Kuznets curve, the Porter hypothesis, etc., as well as the studies aimed at confirming or refuting these hypotheses, has systematized modern approaches to assessing the relations between trade and environmental indicators.Based on the panel data for the period from 1995 to 2019, the author has constructed the gravity models of trade (separately for export and import) of the Republic of Belarus with the EAEU partner countries and neighboring countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Ukraine), taking into account the environmental impact (the carbon dioxide emissions as the proxy variable of pollution). The simulation results have confirmed the theoretical provisions of the gravity theory. In addition, a significant effect of an increase in carbon dioxide emissions of countries – trade partners of the Republic of Belarus on its imports has been revealed.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.