voprstatВопросы статистикиVoprosy Statistiki2313-63832658-549910.34023/2313-6383-2021-28-4-107-120.voprstat-1327Research ArticleИЗ РЕДАКЦИОННОЙ ПОЧТЫFROM THE EDITORIAL MAILАнализ и прогнозирование динамики цифровой трансформации экономики Российской Федерации (на примере оценки цифровизации деятельности организаций)Analysis and Forecasting Dynamics of Digital Transformation of Economy of the Russian Federation (on the Example of the Measurement of the Organization’s Digital Performance)https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1503-2326ПрохоровП. Э.ProkhorovP. E.

 Прохоров Павел Эдуардович – научный сотрудник научной лаборатории «Количественные методы исследования регионального развития»

117997, Москва, Стремянный переулок, д. 36 

 Pavel E. Prokhorov – Scientifc Worker, Scientifc Lab «Quantitative methods of regional development»

 36, Stremyanny Lane, Moscow, 117997

prohorov.pe@rea.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6494-8672МинашкинВ. Г.MinashkinV. G.

 Минашкин Виталий Григорьевич – д-р экон. наук, профессор, проректор 

117997, Москва, Стремянный переулок, д. 36 

 Vitaly G. Minashkin – Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Vice-Rector for Research

36, Stremyanny Lane, Moscow, 117997

Minashkin.VG@rea.ruРоссийский экономический университет имени Г.В. ПлехановаРоссияPlekhanov Russian University of EconomicsRussian Federation202107092021284107120Copyright © Прохоров П.Э., Минашкин В.Г., 20212021Прохоров П.Э., Минашкин В.Г.Prokhorov P.E., Minashkin V.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1327

Внедрение цифровых технологий в учетно-управленческую деятельность организаций является важным инструментом трансформации экономической системы на современном этапе новейшей промышленно-технологической революции. В настоящее время нет однозначного представления о методологическом аппарате для описания состояния и перспектив развития цифровой трансформации. Анализ объективных закономерностей цифровой трансформации российской экономики может быть осуществлен на основе построения математико-статистических моделей, позволяющих проанализировать стадии цифровой зрелости в прошлом и определить развитие прогнозируемых явлений цифровизации в будущем.

Цель статьи – статистический анализ и прогнозирование динамики показателей цифровой трансформации деятельностиорганизаций. Количественная оценка цифровой трансформации была осуществлена на основе показателей, характеризующих применение информационно-коммуникационных технологий (ИКТ) в организациях, а именно: наличия подключения к Интернету, наличия веб-сайта, использования Интернета для заказа товаров и услуг, применения программных средств класса ERP, CRM, SCM. Одним из распространенных инструментов моделирования тенденций технологического развития являются кривые роста.

Для каждого временного ряда осуществлен расчет теоретических значений и оценена точность по четырем моделям кривых роста: Гомперца, Вейбулла, логистической и лог-логистической.

С точки зрения практического применения предложенный в данном исследовании подход может быть полезен при оценкетенденций использования ИКТ в организациях различного типа (в зависимости от вида экономической деятельности и размера) в целях адекватной характеристики цифровой зрелости и дальнейших перспектив цифровой трансформации экономики Российской Федерации.

The introduction of digital technologies in the monitoring and management activities of organizations is an important tool for the transformation of economic system at modern phase of the latest industrial and technological revolution. Currently, there is no unifed methodological apparatus for describing the state and development prospects of digital transformation. The analysis of objective patterns of the digital transformation of the Russian economy can be carried out by constructing mathematical and statistical models that make it possible to analyze the stages of digital maturity in the past and to determine the future development of projected digital phenomena.

The purpose of this article lies in modelling and forecasting of dynamics of digital transformation of the activities of organizations.

Digital transformation was measured based on indicators of the use of information and communication technologies in organizations, namely: Internet connection, website, purchase of goods and services via the Internet, use of software tools of the ERP, CRM, SCM class.

Growth curves are one of the most common tools for modeling technological development trends. For each time series, the accuracy of four models of growth curves was assessed: the Gompertz, Weibull's, logistic and log-logistic.

The practical application of this study is that the proposed approach can be used to assess trends in ICT diffusion in organizations by type of economic activity and by size to obtain a more complete characterization of digital maturity and further prospects for digital transformation of the Russian economy.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.