voprstatВопросы статистикиVoprosy Statistiki2313-63832658-549910.34023/2313-6383-2021-28-3-70-85voprstat-1289Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ СТАТИСТИКАINTERNATIONAL STATISTICSГосударственные расходы на образование и экономический рост: межстрановой анализPublic Spending on Education and Economic Growth: Cross-Country Analysishttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6556-6986КолосницынаМ. Г.KolosnitsynaM. G.

Колосницына Марина Григорьевна – кандидат экономических наук, профессор Департамента прикладной экономики факультета экономических наук

101100, г. Москва, ул. Мясницкая, д. 20

Marina G. Kolosnitsyna – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Department of Applied Economics, Faculty of Economic Sciences

20, Myasnitskaya Str., Moscow, 101100

mkolosnitsyna@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6280-3197ЕрмолинаЮ. Е.ErmolinaYu. E.

Ермолина Юлия Евгеньевна – студентка магистратуры факультета экономических наук

101100, г. Москва, ул. Мясницкая, д. 20

Yulia E. Ermolina – Master's Student, Faculty of Economic Sciences

20, Myasnitskaya Str., Moscow, 101100

yuliya.medushenko@gmail.comНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияNational Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE University)Russian Federation2021290620212837085Copyright © Колосницына М.Г., Ермолина Ю.Е., 20212021Колосницына М.Г., Ермолина Ю.Е.Kolosnitsyna M.G., Ermolina Y.E.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1289

В данной работе ставилась задача на основе статистических и математико-статистических методов, в том числе методологии международного сопоставительного анализа, выявить тесноту взаимосвязей между показателями масштабов финансирования образования и экономического роста в двух группах стран – входящих и не входящих в ОЭСР. Две выбранные группы стран отличаются уровнем экономического развития: ОЭСР – так называемый клуб богатых стран; вторая группа – развивающиеся страны с относительно низкими доходами. В первой части статьи рассматриваются теоретические и информационно-методологические вопросы, связанные с исследованиями взаимосвязи развития образования и экономического роста, в частности общая теория моделирования инвестиций в человеческий капитал, человеческий капитал в моделях эндогенного роста, принципы формирования эмпирических оценок связи расходов на образование и экономического роста. Во второй части статьи на основе изученных теоретических источников, эмпирических работ и предложенной статистической базы эмпирических расчетов были проверены гипотезы относительно основных факторов экономического роста, а  также обоснована степень их влияния на примере разных групп стран. На основе панельных данных за 1995–2018 гг. строились эконометрические модели связи динамических показателей ВВП и расходов на образование – суммарных и по отдельным уровням обучения – с использованием временных лагов. Результаты расчетов подтверждают гипотезу весьма заметного влияния на ВВП в долгосрочной перспективе совокупных расходов на образование. Однако в странах двух групп полученные зависимости сильно различаются. Если в богатых государствах инвестиции во все ступени образования имеют положительную отдачу в форме прироста ВВП, то в бедных странах положительная отдача пока наблюдается только от инвестиций в начальное образование, тогда как расходы на среднее и профессиональное образование сокращают ВВП. Это может объясняться недостаточной востребованностью образования высокого уровня в экономиках со слабо развитыми технологиями и рынками труда. В качестве выводов авторами формулируются предложения управленческо-методологического характера о необходимости учитывать в образовательной политике государства уровень развития страны и выбирать направления инвестиций, адекватные текущим потребностям экономики. В странах с низким уровнем развития и низким уровнем образования населения отвлечение государственных ресурсов на финансирование профессионального образования в краткосрочной перспективе может привести к замедлению экономического роста. Наоборот, расширение охвата населения массовым начальным образованием может способствовать быстрому росту уже в недалеком будущем.

This paper aims to identify the relationship between public spending on education and GDP in two groups of countries: members and non-members of the OECD, based on statistical and econometric methods, including the methodology for international comparative analysis. The two selected groups of countries differ in their level of economic development: the OECD, the so-called ‘rich countries club’, and the second group, relatively low-income developing countries. The first part of the article deals with theoretical and information and methodological issues related to research on the relationship between educational development and economic growth, in particular the general theory of human capital investment, human capital in endogenous growth models, principles for empirical estimates of the relationship between education spending and economic growth. In the second part of the article, were tested the hypotheses concerning key factors of economic growth. The authors based them on studied theoretical sources, empirical works, and the proposed statistical base of empirical calculations. The paper substantiated the degree of impact of various factors using different groups of countries as an example. Based on panel data for 1995–2018, we estimate econometric models of the relationship between GDP and education expenditures, using time lags. The results confirm the positive impact of total education spending on GDP in the long term. However, the results differ for the two groups of countries. While in rich countries, investment in all levels of education has a positive impact on GDP, in poor countries, only primary education has a positive return, while spending on secondary and vocational education reduces GDP. This may be due to the lack of demand for high-level education in economies with poorly developed technologies and labor markets. As conclusions, the authors formulate proposals of a managerial and methodological nature regarding the need to consider the country’s development level in its educational policy and choose investment directions that are adequate to the current needs of the economy. In countries with a low level of development and a low level of education for the majority of the population, diverting public resources to finance professional education may slow economic growth in the short term. Conversely, increased coverage of mass primary education may contribute to rapid growth in the near future.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.