voprstatВопросы статистикиVoprosy Statistiki2313-63832658-5499The Federal State Budgetary Institution "Scientific Research Institute for Socio-Economic Statistics of the Federal State Statistics Service" (Statistics Research Institute of Rosstat)10.34023/2313-6383-2020-27-3-45-52voprstat-1122Research ArticleСТАТИСТИЧЕСКИЕ МЕТОДЫ В СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯХSTATISTICAL METHODS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDIESОценка влияния изменений возрастной и образовательной структуры населения на российский рынок трудаImpact Assessment of Changes in the Age and Educational Structure of the Population in the Russian Labor Markethttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5996-4563ВаршавскаяЕ. Я.VarshavskayaE. Ya.

Варшавская Елена Яковлевна – доктор экономических наук, профессор кафедры управления человеческими ресурсами, факультет бизнеса и менеджмента

101000, г. Москва, ул. Мясницкая, д. 20.

evarshavskaya@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsRussian Federation2020300620202734552Copyright © Варшавская Е.Я., 20202020Варшавская Е.Я.Varshavskaya E.Y.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://voprstat.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/1122

Цель работы оценить вклад изменений возрастной и образовательной структуры населения и рабочей силы в динамику уровней занятости и безработицы в России за последние два десятилетия. Эмпирической основой исследования, результаты которого отражены в статье, являются микроданные выборочного обследования рабочей силы, проводимого Росстатом ежемесячно. Основным инструментарием анализа, применяемым в данной работе, являются методы стандартизации и декомпозиции статистических показателей.

Автор приводит доказательства того, что в течение рассматриваемого периода в составе российского населения и рабочей силы произошли существенные структурные сдвиги. Устойчиво рос удельный вес лиц с высшим образованием, имеющих более высокие показатели занятости и более низкий уровень безработицы; доли молодежи и малообразованного населения, для которых характерно пониженное участие в рабочей силе и высокие риски безработицы, сокращались.

Установлено, что в России динамика показателей занятости и безработицы в 2000-2018 гг. во многом определялась влиянием структурных факторов позитивных (с точки зрения влияния на рынок труда) сдвигов в возрастной и образовательной структуре российского населения и рабочей силы.

Наибольшее влияние структурные факторы оказали на положительную динамику занятости. Рост уровня образования населения обусловил более половины прироста уровня занятости за рассматриваемый период. Изменения возрастной структуры оказали несущественное понижающее давление на уровень занятости. Структурные факторы определили около трети общего снижения уровня безработицы. Вклады изменений как возрастной, так и образовательной структуры в динамику безработицы были практически одинаковыми по величине.

Полученные оценки дают представление о реальной ситуации на российском рынке труда и факторах, определяющих его динамику. Количественные характеристики, отражающие изменения в возрастной и образовательной структуре населения, позволяют, по мнению автора, повысить качество разрабатываемых функциональных прогнозов рынка труда.

The objective of this study is to assess the contribution of changes in the age and educational structure of the population and labor force to the dynamics of the levels of employment and unemployment in Russia in the last two decades. The empirical basis of the study is the microdata of the Labor Force Survey conducted by Rosstat monthly. Standardization and decomposition of statistical indicators are used as methods of analysis.

The author cites evidence that during the period under review the composition of the population and labor force has undergone significant structural changes. The proportion of people with higher education, which are characterized by higher employment rates and lower unemployment rates has steadily increased. The share of young people and the poorly educated population, which are characterized by low participation in employment and high risks of unemployment, was declining.

The dynamics of employment and unemployment rates in 2000-2018 were largely determined by the influence of structural factors favorable (in terms of the impact on the labor market) shifts in the age and educational structure of the Russian population and labor force.

Structural factors had a greater impact on the positive dynamics of employment. Over the period in question, the growth in the level of education contributed to more than half of the increase in the employment rate. Changes in the age structure put downward pressure on the level of employment, but the contribution of this factor was insignificant. Structural factors contributed about a third of the overall decline in the unemployment rate. The contribution of changes in age and educational structure was almost the same in magnitude.

The estimates provide a more accurate idea of the real situation on the Russian labor market and the reasons underlying the dynamics of its indicators. Quantitative characteristics, reflecting changes in the age and educational structure of the population, allow, according to the author, to improve the quality of the developed functional labor market forecasts.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.